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Spring is the traditional busy season for real estate in Greater Vancouver, as in most of the Western World. This year is no exception. The signs are out in full force across the region. From Richmond to Coquitlam and through the West Side, the signs are popping up like the leaves are filling the trees.
There has been much speculation regarding what this "post-olympic" market will look like. For the most part it is turning into a typical Vancouver Spring Market. There are a few clouds in the horizon that need to be watched carefully...
 
The change in bank lending policies came into effect on April 19th. This may have an impact on Investors and first time home buyers, requiring them to have more "in-hand" cash before seeking financing. Although this may create some slowing of the market, it is not enough of a deterrent to impact heavily on demand.
 
The coming HST is of concern to many. It will impact on the amount of commission that a Seller will pay. Prior to the HST Sellers only had to pay the GST, as there was no provincial component in commissions earned. Now the sales tax becomes a blended entity with the service tax, it will create a 7 % increase in the amount due to the Brokerage on closing.The increase in listings thus far does not suggest that some are looking to beat the tax by selling prior to July. If the listings numbers continue to outpace seasonal norms into the late spring and early summer, then it could be argued that consumers are realizing the savings that will occur with a sale prior to July.
 
The rise of the Canadian dollar may help to slow down out-of-country speculative buyers, but it has been argued that these types of buyers are a small minority of the buying market.
Some concerns have been expressed regarding the potential increases in interest rates projected for the summer. The Bank of Canada may be looking to increase the rates, but with the relatively low inflation numbers being posted, the Bank may reconsider the increase. An increase in rates may do more harm than good for the Canadian economy, which seems to be moving along very well at this point.
 
The RE/MAX signs out in the yards across Greater Vancouver are a sign of the times. Inventory is outpacing Buying at this point...but demand doesn't seem to have wained at all.
 
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Home listings rise to start the spring season

A steady influx of new listings has helped create a balanced ‘typical spring’ housing market in the Greater Vancouver region.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 7,004 in March 2010. This represents a 60 per cent increase compared to March 2009 when 4,385 new units were listed, and a 52.1 per cent increase compared to February 2010 when 4,606 properties were listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).

At 13,538, the total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) increased 19 per cent in March compared to last month, but remains 7.6 per cent below this time last year.

“The total number of homes listed for sale on our MLS® is at its highest level in 10 months, which translates into more options and variety for those looking to buy during the traditionally busy spring period,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 3,137 in March 2010, a 38.5 per cent increase compared to March 2009, a 4.7 per cent increase over March 2008, and a 12.4 per cent decrease compared to March 2007. The current figure also represents a 26.8 per cent increase compared to the 2,473 sales recorded in February 2010.

“With a sales-to-listing ratio of 23 per cent, we see a healthy balance between buyer demand and seller supply in the marketplace,” Moldowan said.

Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 20.3 per cent to $584,435 from $485,845 in March 2009. This price is 2.8 per cent above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.

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Albert Einstein died in 1955, having seen his concepts create a new world of understanding during his life. His passing was at a time when the cold war between the Soviets and the Americans was at a point of escalating. Much of the worry of that year, and the decades that followed were with the growing number of nuclear weapons that both super powers were amassing. The creation of the weapon that could effectively wipe out much of life on our planet was due in part to the theories that Einstein had developed.
 
Albert Einstein was not only a radical thinker, but he also was an amazingly creative communicator. Although his ideas are beyond the understanding of most of us, he was able to demonstrate his ideas using common speak. His description of the speed of light was done by referencing a moving train, while his explanation of gravity and time was done by the mental picture of an elevator.
 
The context of communication is so very critical. When looking at something as simple as market trend data in Vancouver, the numbers can be skewed to reflect the researcher's bias, or to amplify opposing opinions. Our age is quickly moving forward in the means that we communicate ideas and opinions. Today Twitter is evolving weekly to address the quick fix communication needs of social media. To some the world view has transformed into a series of games...spurred on by a generation that has grown up with video games and virtual reality. Looking for a home in Kerrisdale becomes an extention of gaming and social media in method and mindset.
 
The language of the landscape is changing, and as Einstein once said, "We can't solve problems by using the same thinking we used when we created them".  The notion of communicating value and service is becoming increasingly difficult in a culture and marketplace where information can be accessed quickly and effectively. The answer to meeting the communication demands in the real estate marketplace is not to continue to use the same thinking of even two years ago. REALTORS(r) must find new ways to communicate service and value to the new consumer.
 
The context of the information is important, and although information is freely and readily available, it must be interpreted properly and effectively in order to best serve the constituents. As Albert observed, "Sometimes one pays the most for the things one gets for nothing."
 
The hidden costs are often greater than the sticker price. This is why having effective communication is so critical. Understanding the information is more important than having access to the information,
 
Nothing reflects the need to communicate properly in the right context than Albert Einstein's last words. Before he passed away, he felt the need to share some final thoughts. The only person in the room was the attending nurse. She heard the final words of the greatest thinker in history. Unfortunately, he spoke them in German, a language the nurse did not understand.
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For some inexplicable reason, the Competition Bureau has been on a witch hunt against the Canadian Real Estate Association for some time now. It may be that someone thought that this highly effective and progressive industry was an easy target. Certainly with the right spin, and with the media on side, it is easy to create an unsympathetic picture based on old charicatures of REALTORS(r).
 
 It is unfortunate that they are attacking one of the truest free market sectors in the Canadian economy. The Real Estate Industry is one of the most competitive industries in North America. Each Brokerage competes aggressively with it's rivals because remuneration is based on performance. Even within an office, the agents compete against each other for Listings and Buyers. Despite this,  the Competition Bureau is smearing CREA and it's almost 100,000 members. The media has been allowed to create untrue pictures of what the issues are surrounding the Competition Bureau's concerns.
 
Meanwhile, the Bureau does not acknowledge the important changes that CREA has made to address those concerns. Changes that the Bureau itself had recommended.
 
 
 
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The Canadian Real estate Association (CREA)  posted recent statistics showing the change between January and February of this year. A total of 42,799 homes were traded last month, down 1.5% from January, as a gains in Toronto were offset by a decline in units sold in Vancouver.
 
The Winter Olympics were cited as a possible factor in lower sales in the province last month. Unit sales were down 13.3 %. Compared to Ontario's growth of 3.3% during the same period.
 
Continuing low interest rates could further prompt home resales this spring ahead of new mortgage rules set to take effect in April. The introduction of the harmonized sales tax will also add to the buying mood of the consumer this spring, as buyers seek to purchase before the tax change takes effect.
 
The average Canadian house price in February rose by 18.2 % from last year.
 
Currently the most affordable Canadian city for housing is Thunder Bay, Ontario with a February average house price of $142,280, up 23.6 % from a year ago.
 
The most unaffordable Canadian city for housing continues to be Vancouver, BC with a February average house price of $658,984. That is also an increase in price from a year ago of 22.4%
 
Most experts agree that the Canadian housing market will be moving to a more balanced market in the fall, while the spring will continue to heat up to answer demand.
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The indications all point to a very active market for this fall in Vancouver. Following the excitement and energy of a successful hosting of the 2010 Olympic games, Vancouver is poised to experience a gold medal spring in terms of the real estate market in the lower mainland.
 
Several factors point to continued growth in development, sales activity, and price. Firstly, the market fundamental of supply and demand has never been stronger on the demand side. Vancouver is desirable as a world class city with it's amazing urban amenities. The city is in a natural setting that is second to none in the world. It is nestled between mountains and sea. The incredible landscape also provides for a mild temperature, something unusual for a Canadian city. The forests are lush, with moss and ferns under the canopy of giant spruce and cedar trees. Vancouver is a mountain metropolis surrounded by a rainforest. Following the exposure the area received during the games, inquiries from around the globe have increased, signalling continued demand for Vancouver real estate.
 
The price of land will continue to climb as long as there is more demand than available supply. Despite the fact that Vancouver is already categorized as "severely unaffordable" in comparision studies between average wage and average house price, the allure of living in this amazing city continues to drive the market.
 
In order to continue to keep up with the demand, developers seek out new locations for high density housing. Projects are fanning further and further away from the core of Greater Vancouver, ahead of mass transit infrastructure projects. This activity on the development side brings employment and opportunity, which continues to feed the demand for housing.
 
Sales activity remains strong as baby boomers seek to use the sale of their homes to leverage their retirement plans. Many long time Vancouverites are benefiting from the surge in prices and demand for property in Great Vancouver. This demand has created many new millionaires, who can now consider selling and retiring by downsizing and cashing in on their new found equity.
 
 
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